Archipelago Climate Initiative

Prepared by: Aruna Koya, Archipelago Community

1. Purpose & Rationale

Objective: Establish a neutral, cross-border advisory initiative providing data-driven analysis of global and national CO₂ emission reductions, focusing on mitigating climate-related displacement.

Rationale:

• Rising CO₂ levels drive temperature increases, extreme weather, and population displacement.
• Governments and multilateral institutions require neutral, actionable insights to prioritize mitigation strategies and investments.
• Existing advisory bodies often lack integrated analysis connecting emissions reduction, temperature trajectories, and displacement risk.

Impact: Inform policy-makers, multilateral organizations, and investors; reduce climate displacement risk; strengthen the case for accelerated emissions reductions.

2. Structure & Governance

Entity Type: Independent, research and advisory organisation, registered under United Kingdom.

Governance:

• Advisory Board: 7–10 members including former negotiators, climate scientists, economists, disaster risk experts, and multilateral specialists.
• Executive Coordinator: Leads research, convening, and outputs.
• Conflict-of-interest policies: Neutral, non-partisan, non-advocacy.

Decision-Making: Consensus approval of research methodology and transparent, peer-reviewed modelling and analysis.

3. Initiative Scope & Outputs

Time Horizon: 2026–2035

• Foundational Analytical Briefing: Quantifying CO₂ reduction impact on global temperature rise and displacement risk.
• Private Advisory Roundtable: Cross-border discussion with 8–12 participants.
• Roadmap for Climate Displacement Risk Index: Prototype framework for future measurement.

4. Methodology

• CO₂ emission trajectory modelling (IPCC-aligned)
• Temperature rise projections
• Population displacement risk analysis by region
• Economic assessment of mitigation vs. adaptation costs

All methodology will be peer-reviewed by the advisory board and external experts.

5. Strategic Alignment

Outputs are designed to inform:

• G20 finance and climate tracks
• OECD economic and environmental outlooks
• UNFCCC adaptation and mitigation dialogues

Neutral framing ensures credibility across countries and political contexts.

6. 12-Month Timeline to Achieve First Goal

Month	Key Milestones
1	Finalize initiative charter, governance, and advisory board terms
2	Identify and approach founding advisors; secure at least 3 confirmations
3	Draft initial modelling methodology and research framework
4	Develop preliminary temperature-emissions-displacement model
5	Conduct early data validation and scenario testing
6	Prepare first draft of analytical briefing
7	Internal advisory board review and feedback
8	Revise briefing; finalize first output
9	Plan and schedule first private advisory roundtable
10	Convene roundtable; collect insights and recommendations
11	Prepare non-attributable summary memo of roundtable findings
12	Publish foundational analytical briefing; outline roadmap for Climate Displacement Risk Index; engage policy and investment stakeholders

7. Resource Requirements

• Funding for research team, modelling tools, and convening logistics
• Secretariat support for coordination and communication
• Advisory board honoraria or travel support (if applicable)
• Confidential dissemination channels for policy-makers

8. Next Steps

• Circulate concept note to potential founding advisors
• Finalize legal and governance structure
• Recruit research and modelling team
• Begin initial data gathering and model development
• Schedule first advisory board meeting